$30 Living Wage by 2030
Click the photo to be taken to MIT’s Living Wage Calculator and see why I landed on $30.
The working class coal miners in the 1920’s required an armed insurrection just to help establish the 40 hour work week and the 2 day weekend. What is our generation willing to fight for?
Path to $30 by 2030: A Tax-and-Transition Plan that Lifts Wages Without Crushing Small Business
If we want a national $30/hour living minimum wage by 2030, we need two things:
a firm, phased federal wage floor; and
a funded transition that helps small and mid-sized employers bridge the gap—paid for by taxing extreme profits and ultra-wealth, not by squeezing workers or Main Street.
1) The Wage Schedule (federal floor)
Phase in a national floor to $30 by Jan 1, 2030, indexed to median wages thereafter.
2026: $20
2027: $24
2028: $27
2029: $29
2030: $30 (then annual COLA to median-wage growth)
Coverage: all employees on federal contracts immediately; all others per schedule. Tipped sub-minimum and disability sub-minimum phases out on the same timeline.
2) The Small-Business Bridge (refundable credits)
Create a Living-Wage Transition Credit (LWTC) through payroll tax filings. It cushions the step-up for smaller employers while preserving the wage floor.
Who qualifies? Employers with <500 U.S. employees.
What’s covered? A share of the wage delta—the gap between an employee’s prior regular rate and the required floor.
Formula (per employee):
Credit = Rate × min( $30 − base wage, $10 ) × hours (capped at 1,800/yr)
Rate & duration (declining support):
Firms <100 emp: 50% (Year 1 after each step), 35% (Year 2), 15% (Year 3)
Firms 100–499 emp: 35%, 20%, 10%
Guardrails: No credit if (a) median pay is below the floor; (b) net buybacks or extraordinary dividends occur; (c) CEO-to-median pay ratio >150:1; or (d) unlawful union-busting or wage theft findings in prior 3 years.
Why this scale? If ~20–25M workers at small firms average a $5/hour gap for 1,600–1,800 hours, gross “delta” is about $160–$225B/yr at peak. The targeted credit (only the first $10/hr of gap, declining rates, firm-size caps) trims federal outlays to ~$80–$110B in 2026–2027, tapering to <$50B by 2029 and near-zero after 2031 as wages normalize.
3) Paid by Tax on Extreme Profits & Ultra-Wealth
A) Excess-Profits Surtax (EPS)
A 10% surtax on extraordinary corporate profits, defined annually as:
EPS base = max (0, current pre-tax profits − 1.25 × inflation-adjusted 2018–2019 average)
Rationale: captures windfalls from market power, crisis pricing, or monopoly rents.
Yield: $80–$120B/yr (order-of-magnitude) in recent profit environments.
B) Buyback & Distribution Check
Raise the stock buyback excise from 1% → 4% (net of new issuance).
Add a 1% large-dividend surtax on distributions >100% of 3-yr average net income.
Yield: $40–$60B/yr (with ~$1–1.5T annual repurchases).
C) Corporate Rate & True Minimums
Lift the headline corporate rate 21% → 28%.
Enforce a global 15% effective minimum (top-up on low-taxed foreign profits; close profit-shifting gaps).
Strengthen the book-minimum tax to catch zero-tax large filers.
Yield: $100–$150B/yr combined.
D) Billionaire Minimum Income Tax
A 25% minimum on total economic income for households with net wealth ≥$100M, using:
Mark-to-market for tradable assets each year;
Deferral with interest for illiquid assets (collected at realization or transfer).
Yield: $50–$60B/yr (steady-state), with strong enforcement.
E) Financial Transaction Tax (FTT)
0.10% equities, 0.02% bonds, 0.001% derivatives notional.
Exempt market-making spreads under tight caps; pension plans get de minimis thresholds.
Yield: $50–$80B/yr; also dampens frothiest churn.
Total recurring revenue envelope: roughly $320–$470B per year, ample to:
cover the LWTC peak (front-loaded, then tapering),
fund public-sector wage catch-ups and state/local offsets for Medicaid & schools ($30–$50B/yr), and
permanently bolster IRS enforcement & small-business compliance help (~$15B/yr).
Note on uncertainty: These are order-of-magnitude ranges; final scores would reflect macro conditions and rule design. The plan intentionally over-funds the peak transition years so we aren’t forced to cut just as wages rise.
4) “Comply or Pay” Incentive for Big Firms
For employers ≥500 employees, add a Wage-Fairness Surtax on U.S. profits when the U.S. median wage in the firm is below the scheduled floor:
WFS = 5% × ($30 − firm median wage/$30) × U.S. profits
Firms can avoid the surtax entirely by raising wages to the floor—aligning incentives without micromanaging operations.
5) Anti-Inflation Safeguards (so raises stick)
Competition & price-gouging enforcement: Fund DOJ/FTC to go after margin-hike collusion in concentrated sectors (food, shipping, healthcare supply).
Tax bias shift: Disallow buyback tax deductibility games; cap the tax deductibility of excess executive pay unless the firm is wage-compliant.
Supply-side investment: Pair with accelerated depreciation for productivity-raising investments (automation that complements labor, energy efficiency, logistics).
6) Clean Implementation (no red tape)
Automatic payroll credits (LWTC) on Forms 941/944 with near-real-time refunds.
Single online portal for wage compliance attestation, CEO/median pay ratio, and union-busting attestations (false filings = treble penalties).
Sunlight: publish anonymized dashboards—coverage, take-up, and prices by sector—so Congress and the public can watch the transition.
7) Why this works
Workers get a clear, dated promise: $30 by 2030—nationally.
Small businesses get temporary, declining help precisely where they feel the jump, with simple rules and fast refunds.
Large corporations and ultra-wealthy households—whose profits, buybacks, and unrealized gains surged—finance the transition that a healthier consumer economy ultimately benefits.
Inflation risk is contained by targeting monopolistic margins, not by suppressing wages.
How Real Businesses Cope — 3 Examples
The numbers below assume 1,800 paid hours per full-time worker/year (≈ 35 hrs/week × 52). If your shop runs different hours, scale the math up or down.
1) Riverbend Coffee — 18 employees (Main Street café)
Today: 10 baristas at $15/hr; 8 shift leads at $17/hr.
2026 floor: $20.
Cost without help:
Barista delta: $5 × 1,800 = $9,000 per worker
Lead delta: $3 × 1,800 = $5,400 per worker
Total extra payroll year 1: (10×9,000) + (8×5,400) = $129,200
With the LWTC (firm <100): 50% credit year 1 → $64,600 back; net extra payroll ≈ $64,600.
Year 2: 35% credit on that same delta while the shop raises productivity (batch brewing, mobile orders) and trims turnover.
What changes inside the café?
Turnover falls. Losing one trained barista can cost $3–5k in hiring, training, and lost service. If churn drops by 6 people a year, that’s $18–30k saved—money that used to be burned.
Slight price tune-ups (e.g., +$0.25 on a $4 coffee) and better throughput at the morning rush can cover much of the remaining gap.
By 2027–2028, more locals have higher pay, and weekday ticket sizes rise (pastry + coffee instead of coffee alone). Volume, not just price, carries the business.
2) Carolina Precision — 120 employees (regional machine shop)
Today: 70 machinists at $19/hr; 40 assemblers at $17/hr; 10 support staff at $22/hr.
2027 floor: $24.
Year-1 deltas: machinists +$5; assemblers +$7; support +$2.
Gross extra payroll (rounded):
Machinists: 70 × ($5×1,800) = $630,000
Assemblers: 40 × ($7×1,800) = $504,000
Support: 10 × ($2×1,800) = $36,000
Total: $1,170,000
LWTC (100–499 employees): 35% credit year 1 → $409,500; net $760,500. Year 2: 20% ($234,000) as the firm locks in multi-year contracts with wage escalators and invests in CNC upgrades that raise output per worker.
What changes inside the plant?
Lower vacancy/temps. The shop keeps experienced machinists instead of paying recruiters + overtime to cover holes. Quality defects drop; delivery penalties disappear.
Sales can price in the federally known wage path (customers face the same economy). Contract language adjusts, not margins alone.
Within two years, higher regional incomes mean steadier orders from downstream customers (HVAC, auto parts, equipment repair).
3) Little Acorns — 40 employees (childcare center)
Today: aides at $13/hr; lead teachers at $16/hr; admin at $18/hr.
2026 floor: $20.
Year-1 deltas: aides +$7; leads +$4; admin +$2.
Gross extra payroll (rounded):
24 aides: 24 × ($7×1,800) = $302,400
12 leads: 12 × ($4×1,800) = $86,400
4 admin: 4 × ($2×1,800) = $14,400
Total: $403,200
LWTC (firm <100): 50% year 1 → $201,600 back; net $201,600. Year 2: 35% credit ($141,120).
Reality check: child-care margins are tight; states can layer voucher rate increases and wage pass-throughs (funded from the same tax package) so fees don’t spike on parents.
Upside: better pay stabilizes staffing—waitlists shrink, classrooms stay open, and parents keep working. This is one of the highest “economic multiplier” fixes we have.
The Long Game — Why Higher Wages Help the Whole Local Economy
More paying customers: When millions move from $12–$18 to $20–$30, cash registers ring—at diners, auto shops, hardware stores, childcare, and clinics. Businesses prefer steady volume to coupon-chasing.
Less turnover, higher skill: Better wages cut churn and absenteeism. Training finally sticks; service improves; mistakes fall. Those are direct cost savings that rarely show up in the first-day math.
Fewer “junk costs”: Families current on rent and utilities generate fewer collection losses for landlords and power co-ops. Hospitals eat fewer charity-care bills. Local governments collect steadier sales and property taxes without hiking rates.
Real competition again: When all employers live under the same wage floor, the game shifts from “who can pay the least” to “who can run the best shop”—better management, tech that complements people, smarter scheduling, honest pricing.
Why Not Keep the Old System?
The old model—poverty or near-poverty wages—looks cheap on payroll but expensive everywhere else:
Constant turnover and re-training.
“Help Wanted” signs as a business model.
Customers who can’t afford the very goods and services local businesses sell.
Public systems quietly subsidizing low wages (food stamps, ER care, housing crises) while mega-corporations book record buybacks.
We’ve been paying the bill—just not at the register.